Prediction of Glomerular Filtration Rate Following Partial Nephrectomy for Localized Renal Cell Carcinoma with Different Machine Learning Techniques.
Journal:
Cancers
Published Date:
May 13, 2025
Abstract
: Partial nephrectomy (PN) is the preferred option for treating localized cT1 renal cell carcinoma (RCC), as it preserves renal function in most patients and offers non-inferior oncological outcomes compared to radical nephrectomy. In this study, we aimed to construct a predictive model for estimating the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) at one year after PN in patients with RCC, using various machine learning techniques. : Retrospective data were collected from two academic centers, covering surgeries performed between 2010 and 2022. GFR was estimated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration 2021 (CKD-EPI) formula. Univariable linear regression (LR) was used to identify significant clinical predictors of 1-year postoperative GFR, followed by multivariable LR. The dataset was split into training and testing cohorts in a 70:30 ratio. Internal validation was performed on the test cohort, and various machine learning methods, including artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector machines (SVMs), random forests (RFs), and XGBoost, were compared. : Among 615 patients treated with PN, 415 had complete follow-up GFR data and were included in the analysis. Only 8.7% of patients experienced significant GFR loss (>30% decrease) at 1 year. Multivariable LR identified baseline GFR (Estimate: 0.76, < 0.001), tumor diameter on imaging (Estimate: -1.65, = 0.005), and Charlson Comorbidity Index (Estimate: -1.95, < 0.001) as independent predictors of 1-year GFR (R = 0.67). A 10-fold cross-validation of the multivariable model yielded an R of 0.68. In the testing cohort, ANN, SVM, RF, and XGBoost did not outperform the LR model, with R values of 0.68, 0.66, 0.64, and 0.55, respectively. : Preoperative factors, including baseline GFR, tumor size on imaging, and Charlson Comorbidity Index, are effective predictors of GFR at 1 year following PN. Our study demonstrates that a conventional LR model based on preoperative variables provides acceptable accuracy for predicting GFR after PN and is not inferior to more complex machine learning techniques.
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