Global cooling drove diversification and warming caused extinction among Carboniferous-Permian fusuline foraminifera.

Journal: Science advances
Published Date: Jun 20, 2025

Abstract

The fossil record provides the only direct evidence of changes in biodiversity over time. Patterns in more inclusive taxonomic levels (e.g., families and orders) often become more complex because of interactions between biological traits and environmental conditions across different evolutionary lineages. Using supercomputing and artificial intelligence algorithms, we analyzed a high-resolution global dataset of fusuline foraminifera-the most diverse marine fossil group from the Carboniferous to the Permian (~340 to 252 million years ago)-at an unprecedented temporal resolution of <45 thousand years. Our unbinned diversity reconstruction reveals unexpectedly simple diversity dynamics in this exceptionally well-preserved clade. We identify two (and likely a third) truncated exponential diversifications and four major diversity declines. During this interval, long-term cooling consistently promoted biodiversification, whereas warming events were closely linked to extinctions. These findings imply that the current rapid global warming, driven by anthropogenic CO emissions, represents a critical threat to modern ecosystems.

Authors

  • Shu-Han Zhang
    State Key Laboratory of Critical Earth Material Cycling and Mineral Deposits, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering and Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
  • Ying-Ying Zhao
    State Key Laboratory of Critical Earth Material Cycling and Mineral Deposits, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering and Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
  • Yu-Kun Shi
    State Key Laboratory of Critical Earth Material Cycling and Mineral Deposits, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering and Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
  • Qiang Fang
  • Xiang-Dong Wang
    State Key Laboratory of Critical Earth Material Cycling and Mineral Deposits, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering and Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
  • Jun-Xuan Fan
    State Key Laboratory of Critical Earth Material Cycling and Mineral Deposits, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering and Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
  • Yi-Chun Zhang
    State Key Laboratory of Palaeobiology and Stratigraphy, Nanjing Institute of Geology and Palaeontology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China.
  • Dong-Xun Yuan
    School of Resources and Geosciences, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China.
  • Yue Wang
    Department of Pharmacology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, United States.
  • Fei-Fei Zhang
    State Key Laboratory of Critical Earth Material Cycling and Mineral Deposits, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering and Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
  • Huai-Chun Wu
    State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China.
  • Douglas H Erwin
    Department of Paleobiology, MRC-121 National Museum of Natural History, P.O. Box 37012, Washington, DC 20013-7012, USA.
  • Charles R Marshall
    Preventive Neurology Unit, Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK; Neurology Department, Barts Health NHS Trust, London, UK. Electronic address: charles.marshall@qmul.ac.uk.
  • Shu-Zhong Shen
    State Key Laboratory of Critical Earth Material Cycling and Mineral Deposits, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering and Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.

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