A model developed by machine learning and principal component analysis for predicting bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome after allogeneic HSCT in a Chinese population with hematologic malignancies.

Journal: Computers in biology and medicine
Published Date: Jun 23, 2025

Abstract

Bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) is a severe pulmonary complication following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT), with early prediction being crucial. While pulmonary function tests (PFTs) are fundamental for BOS assessment, the predictive value of pretransplant PFT results remains uncertain. In this study involving allo-HSCT recipients with hematologic malignancies who survived over 100 days post-HSCT, we aimed to determine the predictive significance of pretransplant PFTs for BOS. Data from 742 eligible patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts, and machine learning algorithms were employed for feature engineering, feature selection, and modeling. Principal component analysis (PCA) was utilized to reduce the dimensionality of PFT parameters. Over a median follow-up of 573.5 days, 57 patients developed BOS, with a median interval of 269 days from transplantation to BOS onset. Our multivariate logistic regression (MLR) model, incorporating the first principal components of PCA-treated PFT results along with age, sex, and previous nonpulmonary chronic graft-versus-host disease (GvHD), demonstrated discriminant AUC values of 0.671 (95 % CI, 0.522-0.820) and 0.669 (95 % CI, 0.588-0.751) in the validation and training sets, respectively. Pretransplant PFT results emerged as pivotal in predicting BOS risk post-allo-HSCT. The MLR model, developed through data-driven machine learning, effectively identifies high-risk BOS populations at an early stage.

Authors

  • Jia Chen
    Department of Oncology Internal Medicine, Nantong Tumor Hospital, Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Nantong University, Nantong, China.
  • Lingyi Yang
    Department of Pathology, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Therapy, Tianjin; Tianjin's Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Tianjin Medical University, Ministry of Education, Tianjin 300060, China.
  • Chao Liu
    Anti-Drug Technology Center of Guangdong Province, National Anti-Drug Laboratory Guangdong Regional Center, Guangzhou 510230, China.
  • Lian Bai
    Department of Hematology, Suzhou Canglang Hospital, Suzhou, 215009, China.
  • Xiaoli Li
    State Key Laboratory of Cognitive Neuroscience and Learning & IDG/McGovern Institute for Brain Research, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
  • Jun Chen
    Department of Bioengineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
  • Yanming Zhang
    Faculty of Applied Sciences, Macao Polytechnic University, Macao, China. zhangyanming_3@sina.com.
  • Yang Xu
    Dermatological Department, Nan Chong Center Hospital, Nanchong, China.
  • Yi Fan
    Facial Science Research Group, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, Australia.
  • Yuqing Tu
    National Clinical Research Center for Hematologic Diseases, Jiangsu Institute of Hematology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, 215006, China; Institute of Blood and Marrow Transplantation, Collaborative Innovation Center of Hematology, Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, 215006, China; State Key Laboratory of Radiation Medicine and Protection, Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, 215123, China.
  • Mimi Xu
    National Clinical Research Center for Hematologic Diseases, Jiangsu Institute of Hematology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, China.
  • Lingfeng Li
  • Jiming Xu
    Yidu Cloud Technology Inc., Beijing, China.
  • Yehan Zhu
    Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, 215006, China.
  • Yao Wang
    Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Zhongshan People's Hospital, Zhongshan, Guangdong, China.
  • Feng Chen
    Department of Integrated Care Management Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
  • Depei Wu
    National Clinical Research Center for Hematologic Diseases, Jiangsu Institute of Hematology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, China.

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