Forecasting tuberculosis in Ethiopia using deep learning: progress toward sustainable development goal evidence from global burden of disease 1990-2021.

Journal: BMC infectious diseases
Published Date: Jul 1, 2025

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is a preventable and treatable disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, which most often affects lungs and remains the second leading cause of death from infectious diseases worldwide. The National End TB Strategy aims to eliminate the TB epidemic by reducing TB-related deaths by 95% and decreasing incident TB cases by 90% by 2030, using 2015 as the baseline. Tuberculosis is the primary cause of morbidity, ranks third in hospital admissions, and is the second leading cause of death in Ethiopia, following malaria. Hence, this analysis aims to forecast and provide evidence that supports the combined intervention to monitor TB incidence in Ethiopia's progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals.

Authors

  • Zinabu Bekele Tadese
    Department of Health Informatics, College of Medicine and Health Science, Samara University, Samara, Ethiopia.
  • Fetlework Gubena Arage
    Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.
  • Tigist Kifle Tsegaw
    Department of Public Health, Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.
  • Eyob Akalewold Alemu
    Department of Public Health, Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.
  • Tsegasilassie Gebremariam Abate
    Department of Maternal and Child Health, Lemi Kura Subcity Health Office, Addis Ababa City Administration Health Bureau, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
  • Eliyas Addisu Taye
    Department of Health Informatics, Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.

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