Machine learning-based prediction model for post-ERCP cholangitis in patients with malignant biliary obstruction: a retrospective multicenter study.

Journal: Surgical endoscopy
Published Date: Jul 9, 2025

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is the preferred palliative treatment for patients with unresectable malignant biliary obstruction (MBO), which can relieve biliary obstruction and prolong survival. Post-ERCP cholangitis (PEC) affects the survival of MBO patients. Early prediction of PEC risk is crucial for developing individualized treatment plans and improving prognosis. Currently, no predictive models exist for clinical practice. This study aims to develop and validate an interpretable machine learning prediction model using multicenter cohorts to predict the risk of PEC.

Authors

  • HengWei Jin
    From the Department of Interventional Neuroradiology, Beijing Neurosurgical Institute and Beijing Tiantan Hospital of Capital Medical University, China (Q.L., P.J., Y.J., H.G., S.L., H.J., Y.L.).
  • Xu Sun
    MOE Key Laboratory of Computational Linguistics, School of EECS, Peking University, Beijing, China; Center for Data Science, Peking University, Beijing, China. Electronic address: xusun@pku.edu.cn.
  • Chang Fu
    Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, General Surgery Center, First Hospital of Jilin University, No. 71, Xinmin Street, Changchun, Jilin Province, China.
  • Changqing Fan
    Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, General Surgery Center, First Hospital of Jilin University, No. 71, Xinmin Street, Changchun, Jilin Province, China.
  • Junhong Chen
    The Hamlyn Centre for Robotic Surgery, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK.
  • Ziyu Zhang
    Radiography and Medical Imaging, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia. Electronic address: zhangc.ziyu@gmail.com.
  • Yibo Yang
    King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal 23955, Saudi Arabia.
  • Xiaoyu Fan
    Department of Orthopedics, Beijing Key Laboratory for Immune-Mediated Inflammatory Diseases, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100029, China; China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Peking University, Beijing 100029, China.
  • Ye He
    School of Resource and Safety Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, 100083, People's Republic of China.
  • Siyuan Yin
    Endoscopy Center, Third Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin Province, China.
  • Kai Liu
    College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China.

Keywords

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