Post-pandemic social contacts in Italy: implications for social distancing measures on in-person school and work attendance
Journal:
arXiv
Published Date:
Dec 24, 2024
Abstract
The collection of updated data on social contact patterns following the
COVID-19 pandemic disruptions is crucial for future epidemiological assessments
and evaluating non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) based on physical
distancing. We conducted two waves of an online survey in March 2022 and March
2023 in Italy, gathering data from a representative population sample on direct
(verbal/physical interactions) and indirect (prolonged co-location in indoor
spaces) contacts. Using a generalized linear mixed model, we examined
determinants of individuals' total social contacts and evaluated the potential
impact of work-from-home and distance learning on the transmissibility of
respiratory pathogens. In-person attendance at work or school emerged as a
primary driver of social contacts. Adults attending in person reported a mean
of 1.69 (95% CI: 1.56-1.84) times the contacts of those staying home; among
children and adolescents, this ratio increased to 2.38 (95% CI: 1.98-2.87). We
estimated that suspending all non-essential work alone would marginally reduce
transmissibility. However, combining distance learning for all education levels
with work-from-home policies could decrease transmissibility by up to 23.7%
(95% CI: 18.2%-29.0%). Extending these measures to early childcare services
would yield only minimal additional benefits. These results provide useful data
for modelling the transmission of respiratory pathogens in Italy after the end
of the COVID-19 emergency. They also provide insights into the potential
epidemiological effectiveness of social distancing interventions targeting work
and school attendance, supporting considerations on the balance between the
expected benefits and their heavy societal costs.
