Modeling supply chain compliance response strategies based on AI synthetic data with structural path regression: A Simulation Study of EU 2027 Mandatory Labor Regulations

In the context of the new mandatory labor compliance in the European Union (EU), which will be implemented in 2027, supply chain enterprises face stringent working hour management requirements and compliance risks. In order to scientifically predict the enterprises' coping behaviors and performance outcomes under the policy impact, this paper constructs a methodological framework that integrates the AI synthetic data generation mechanism and structural path regression modeling to simulate the enterprises' strategic transition paths under the new regulations. In terms of research methodology, this paper adopts high-quality simulation data generated based on Monte Carlo mechanism and NIST synthetic data standards to construct a structural path analysis model that includes multiple linear regression, logistic regression, mediation effect and moderating effect. The variable system covers 14 indicators such as enterprise working hours, compliance investment, response speed, automation level, policy dependence, etc. The variable set with explanatory power is screened out through exploratory data analysis (EDA) and VIF multicollinearity elimination. The findings show that compliance investment has a significant positive impact on firm survival and its effect is transmitted through the mediating path of the level of intelligence; meanwhile, firms' dependence on the EU market significantly moderates the strength of this mediating effect. It is concluded that AI synthetic data combined with structural path modeling provides an effective tool for high-intensity regulatory simulation, which can provide a quantitative basis for corporate strategic response, policy design and AI-assisted decision-making in the pre-prediction stage lacking real scenario data. Keywords: AI synthetic data, structural path regression modeling, compliance response strategy, EU 2027 mandatory labor regulation