Fairness Correction in COVID-19 Predictive Models Using Demographic Optimization: Algorithm Development and Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 forecasting models have been used to inform decision-making around resource allocation and intervention decisions, such as hospital beds or stay-at-home orders. State-of-the-art forecasting models often use multimodal data, including mobility or sociodemographic data, to enhance COVID-19 case prediction models. Nevertheless, related work has revealed under-reporting bias in COVID-19 cases as well as sampling bias in mobility data for certain minority racial and ethnic groups, which affects the fairness of COVID-19 predictions across racial and ethnic groups. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to introduce a fairness correction method that works for forecasting COVID-19 cases at an aggregate geographic level. METHODS: We use hard and soft error parity analyses on existing fairness frameworks and demonstrate that our proposed method, Demographic Optimization (DemOpts), performs better in both scenarios. RESULTS: We first demonstrate that state-of-the-art COVID-19 deep learning models produce mean prediction errors that are significantly different across racial and ethnic groups at larger geographic scales. We then propose a novel debiasing method, DemOpts, to increase the fairness of deep learning-based forecasting models trained on potentially biased datasets. Our results show that DemOpts can achieve better error parity than other state-of-the-art debiasing approaches, thus effectively reducing the differences in the mean error distributions across racial and ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: We introduce DemOpts, which reduces error parity differences compared with other approaches and generates fairer forecasting models compared with other approaches in the literature.