The Risk Factors, Detection and Classification of Esophageal Cancer Using Ensemble Machine Learning Models

Esophageal cancer (EC) remains one of the most lethal malignancies worldwide, with poor survival outcomes largely attributable to late-stage diagnosis and limited treatment effectiveness. Early detection and accurate risk stratification are therefore essential for improving clinical management. In this study, we investigate the predictive value of socio-demographic, dietary, behavioral, environmental, and clinical variables collected from 312 individuals (104 EC cases and 208 controls) in the Arsi Zone, Ethiopia. An ensemble features ranking approach based on Random Forest machine learning was first applied to identify the most relevant predictive features. Subsequently, multiple ensemble machine learning models were evaluated, including Histogram-based Gradient Boosting (Model I), Extreme Gradient Boosting (Model II), AdaBoost (Model III), Random Forest (Model IV), and k-Nearest Neighbors (Model V). These models were tested under multiple experimental settings using both full and reduced feature subsets. To enhance robustness and minimize variability, a multi-seed ensemble framework was employed. Different seed values generate distinct train-test splits and slight variations in model initialization and optimization, leading to minor differences in training outcomes; aggregating results across multiple seeds mitigates this variability and provides more stable and reliable performance estimates. The experimental results demonstrate that boosting-based ensemble models consistently outperform other classifiers across all evaluation metrics. Model I achieved the highest overall performance, reaching an accuracy of 0.983, with precision of 0.982, recall of 0.980, and F1-score of 0.981 using the reduced feature set, while maintaining nearly identical performance with the full feature set. Model II also showed stable and strong predictive capability, achieving accuracies of 0.963 and 0.961 for the full and reduced feature sets, respectively, with balanced precision, recall, and F1-score values. These findings indicate that feature importance-based dimensionality reduction preserves essential predictive information without compromising classification performance. Overall, the results highlight the significant predictive contribution of dietary and environmental risk factors and demonstrate that ensemble learning provides a reliable, efficient, and clinically meaningful approach for early EC detection. The proposed framework offers a promising direction for supporting diagnostic decision-making and risk stratification in resource-limited healthcare settings.