Risk of apnoea-related cardiorespiratory instability in preterm infants is modulated by clinical, demographic and dynamic indicators
Journal:
medRxiv
Published Date:
May 17, 2026
Abstract
Background: Apnoea of prematurity is common and may cause desaturation and/or bradycardia. There is marked variability in infants cardiorespiratory responses to apnoea, despite standardised clinical thresholds. Factors influencing apnoea-related cardiorespiratory instability and whether instability can be predicted warrant investigation. Methods: 181,511 apnoeas >5 seconds were identified from continuous physiological recordings from 146 preterm infants <37 weeks postmenstrual age. Cardiorespiratory instability was defined as bradycardia (>30% heart rate reduction) and/or oxygen desaturation (<85%). Mixed-effects models assessed clinical, demographic and dynamic modulators of the relationship between apnoea duration and cardiorespiratory instability. Machine learning (XGBoost) was used to train models to predict apnoea-related cardiorespiratory instability. Results: Longer duration apnoeas were associated with increased instability, although variability was substantial and 3.6% of apnoeas <10 seconds were associated with cardiorespiratory instability, while 61.2% of apnoeas [≥]20 seconds were not. Multiple clinical/demographic (postmenstrual and gestational age, sex, weight z-score, and ventilation mode) and dynamic (baseline heart rate, oxygen saturation, and recent apnoea clustering) factors were associated with increased instability risk. Apnoea-related cardiorespiratory instability could be predicted with a balanced test accuracy of 75.8% when incorporating all features, while a model using only clinical/demographic features achieved 66.0%. Conclusions: Multiple factors influence cardiorespiratory responses to apnoea. Predictive modelling may enable personalised apnoea definitions, improving individualised care.
