Robust Random Forests for Genomic Prediction: Challenges and Remedies

Data contamination, from recording errors to extreme outliers, can compromise statistical models by biasing predictions, inflating prediction errors, and, in severe cases, destabilizing performance in high-dimensional settings. Although contamination can affect responses and covariates, we focus on response contamination and evaluate Random Forests through simulation. Using a synthetic animal-breeding dataset, we assess robust Random Forests across several contamination scenarios and validate them on plant and animal datasets. We thereby clarify the consequences of contamination for prediction, develop a robust Random Forest framework, and evaluate its performance. We examine preprocessing or data-transformation strategies, algorithmic modifications, and hybrid approaches for robustifying Random Forests. Across these approaches, data transformation emerges as the most effective strategy, delivering the strongest performance under contamination. This strategy is simple, general, and transferable to other Machine Learning methods, offering a remedy for robust genomic prediction. In real breeding data, robust Random Forests are useful when substantial contamination, phenotypic corruption, misrecording, or train-deployment mismatch is plausible and the goal is to recover a latent signal for genomic prediction and selection; in that setting, ranking-based and weighting-based robust Random Forests offer complementary remedies, the latter through a median-centred formulation that gives shrinkage a coherent interpretation across response distributions. Robustification is not universally necessary, but it becomes important when contamination distorts the link between observed responses and the predictive target; standard Random Forests remain the default for clean data, whereas robust Random Forests should be fitted alongside them whenever contamination is plausible, with the final choice guided by data, trait, and breeding objective.