Deep learning-based early prediction of gestational diabetes mellitus through first-trimester placental texture analysis.

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to develop a multi-parameter fusion model for early GDM risk prediction and validate its performance through external multicenter testing. METHODS: A total of 628 pregnant women at 11+0-13+6 weeks were enrolled from two medical centers. The Center I cohort was divided into training (n = 356) and testing sets (n = 153). Radiomic features (1,289) and deep learning features (2,048) were extracted from placental ultrasound images. Feature-level fusion resulted in 3337 features, which were selected using Spearman correlation, mRMR, and LASSO. Five models were built: Rad Model, DTL Model, DLR Model, Clinic Model, and Combined Model. Performance was assessed using ROC analysis, DCA, and calibration curves. RESULTS: The Combined Model achieved the best overall performance, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.879 in the internal validation, significantly outperforming any single-modality model (P < 0.05). DCA demonstrated that the fusion-based model provided higher net clinical benefit across a wide range of threshold probabilities compared with both "treat-all" and "treat-none" strategies. The calibration curve showed excellent agreement between predicted and observed probabilities (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P > 0.05). DISCUSSION: The multimodal fusion model enhanced early GDM prediction by detecting subtle placental changes in first-trimester, enabling timely intervention and personalized decision-making.