From CHESS to CHECKMATE: A Practical Score for Predicting Shunt Dependency Following Subarachnoid Hemorrhage
Journal:
medRxiv
Published Date:
Jul 21, 2026
Abstract
Objective: Shunt-dependent hydrocephalus is a common and costly complication of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH), affecting up to 28% of survivors. Existing prediction tools, including the Chronic Hydrocephalus Ensuing from SAH Score (CHESS), have limited discriminative accuracy. We developed the CHECKMATE score, a clinically practical tool to improve prediction of ventriculoperitoneal shunt dependency after aSAH. Methods: In this multicenter retrospective cohort of 486 patients with aSAH from Mayo Clinic (January 1, 2006-December 31, 2021), we used multivariable logistic regression and machine learning to identify independent predictors of ventriculoperitoneal shunt placement. The CHECKMATE score was derived from 5 weighted variables: symptomatic hydrocephalus (10 points), intraventricular hemorrhage (5 points), SAH volume greater than 10 mL (3 points), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio greater than 12 (2 points), and 10-year incremental age thresholds starting at older than 60 years (1 point each). Results: Of 486 patients (mean age, 56.3 years; 64.6% female), 137 (28.2%) required ventriculoperitoneal shunt placement. The CHECKMATE score achieved an area under the curve of 0.808 (compared to 0.737 for CHESS), with a sensitivity of 0.85, specificity of 0.67, and negative predictive value of 0.92 at the optimal cutoff of 14 points. Conclusions: The CHECKMATE score outperforms CHESS for predicting ventriculoperitoneal shunt dependency after aSAH and is easily used at the bedside. Its high negative predictive value helps identify low-risk patients who may benefit from earlier external ventricular drain weaning and shorter hospital stays.
