First-24-hour machine learning for 30-day mortality prediction in ICU trauma patients: development in MIMIC-III and cross-database evaluation in MIMIC-IV
Journal:
medRxiv
Published Date:
Jul 30, 2026
Abstract
ICU trauma patients are clinically heterogeneous, and early mortality risk stratification may support monitoring and resource allocation. We developed machine learning models for 30-day mortality prediction using information recorded during the first 24 hours after ICU admission. In MIMIC-III, six feature configurations were trained using 3,411 patients and compared in a patient-level configuration-selection hold-out subset of 853 patients. The selected XGBoost configuration yielded an area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) of 0.556 and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.863. For cross-database evaluation, a 228-predictor harmonized XGBoost model was refitted on the complete MIMIC-III cohort and evaluated in 13,747 MIMIC-IV ICU stays without using MIMIC-IV outcomes for model development or recalibration. It achieved an AUPRC of 0.495, an AUROC of 0.825, and a Brier score of 0.109. Calibration was monotonic but showed increasing overprediction at higher predicted risks. First-24-hour clinical information retained predictive value across MIMIC database versions, although internal configuration selection, model differences, same-center provenance, and incomplete feature-mapping documentation limit generalizability and deployment readiness.
