Antimicrobial resistance analysis of Klebsiella pneumoniae bloodstream infections based on a random forest algorithm: a longitudinal study based on data from tertiary hospitals in China from 2012 to 2023.
Journal:
International health
Published Date:
Sep 1, 2026
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Bloodstream infections (BSIs) caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae pose a significant global health burden, complicated by rising antimicrobial resistance (AMR). This study aimed to characterize resistance patterns, identify predictors of carbapenem resistance, and develop a machine learning model to predict patient outcomes. METHODS: In a retrospective analysis of 109 279 K. pneumoniae BSIs from tertiary hospitals in China (2012-2023), 11 000 isolates underwent whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression models identified predictors of 30-day mortality and carbapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae (CRKP), respectively. A random forest model predicted AMR trends and outcomes, evaluated by accuracy, precision, recall, and ROC-AUC using R Studio (R Studio, Inc., Boston, MA, USA). RESULTS: Carbapenem resistance occurred in 32.3% of isolates, with rates of 41.9% for third-generation cephalosporins and 41.2% for fluoroquinolones. Among sequenced isolates, ST11 with blaKPC was the dominant CRKP genotype (12.0%). blaKPC (OR 3.97, 95% CI 3.10-5.11) and blaNDM (OR 2.80, 95% CI 2.07-3.71) strongly predicted carbapenem resistance; ICU admission predicted 30-day mortality (HR 2.10, 95% CI 1.80-2.46, p<0.001). Mortality was higher in CRKP (40.2%) vs. susceptible cases (21.5%). The random forest model achieved 89.2% accuracy and 0.92 ROC-AUC, with drug share, age, and CRKP status as top predictors. CONCLUSIONS: CRKP, especially ST11-blaKPC, drives excess mortality. Key predictors highlight the urgency for enhanced AMR surveillance and targeted therapy.
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