Accurate detection of metagenomic strain-level associations using average nucleotide identity with StrainSpy
Journal:
bioRxiv
Published Date:
Sep 1, 2026
Abstract
Genetic variation among microbial strains of the same species can profoundly influence their phenotypes, ecological functions, and impacts on human health. Traditionally, the relative abundance of a species has been used to identify associations between the microbiome and disease. However, this approach overlooks intra-species genetic variation and is susceptible to spurious correlations arising from the compositional nature of abundance data and microbial load. Fast, k-mer-based algorithms can now accurately estimate strain-level Average Nucleotide Identity (ANI) in metagenomes. Despite its value as an orthogonal metric for strain-level analysis, methods for conducting ANI-based association studies remain limited. To address this, we developed StrainSpy, a statistical algorithm that identifies associations between containment ANI and variables of interest across a wide range of study designs, including longitudinal and multi-cohort designs. Re-analysis of a study examining gut microbiota recovery in 12 healthy adults following antibiotic exposure revealed novel strain-level associations, including a reduction in strain-level diversity despite species persistence. Applying StrainSpy to a multi-cohort analysis of 3,414 colorectal cancer metagenomes identified novel strain-level associations with colorectal cancer. However, in a separate collection of microbiome-immunotherapy studies, no individual strain was consistently associated across cohorts. Importantly, across both datasets, StrainSpy informed containment ANI-based machine learning models achieved comparable accuracy to traditional abundance-based methods. StrainSpy is publicly available as an R package github.com/gtonkinhill/strainspy.
