Developing a Risk Model to Target High-risk Preventive Interventions for Sexual Assault Victimization among Female U.S. Army Soldiers.

Journal: Clinical psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science
Published Date: Jul 29, 2016

Abstract

Sexual violence victimization is a significant problem among female U.S. military personnel. Preventive interventions for high-risk individuals might reduce prevalence, but would require accurate targeting. We attempted to develop a targeting model for female Regular U.S. Army soldiers based on theoretically-guided predictors abstracted from administrative data records. As administrative reports of sexual assault victimization are known to be incomplete, parallel machine learning models were developed to predict administratively-recorded (in the population) and self-reported (in a representative survey) victimization. Capture-recapture methods were used to combine predictions across models. Key predictors included low status, crime involvement, and treated mental disorders. Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was .83-.88. 33.7-63.2% of victimizations occurred among soldiers in the highest-risk ventile (5%). This high concentration of risk suggests that the models could be useful in targeting preventive interventions, although final determination would require careful weighing of intervention costs, effectiveness, and competing risks.

Authors

  • Amy E Street
    National Center for PTSD, VA Boston Healthcare System, and Department of Psychiatry, Boston University School of Medicine.
  • Anthony J Rosellini
    Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School.
  • Robert J Ursano
    Center for the Study of Traumatic Stress, Department of Psychiatry, Uniformed Services University School of Medicine.
  • Steven G Heeringa
    Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan.
  • Eric D Hill
    Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School.
  • John Monahan
    School of Law, University of Virginia.
  • James A Naifeh
    Center for the Study of Traumatic Stress, Department of Psychiatry, Uniformed Services University School of Medicine.
  • Maria V Petukhova
    Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School.
  • Ben Y Reis
    Predictive Medicine Group, Boston Children's Hospital and Harvard Medical School.
  • Nancy A Sampson
    Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School.
  • Paul D Bliese
    Darla Moore School of Business, University of South Carolina.
  • Murray B Stein
    Departments of Psychiatry and Family Medicine & Public Health, University of California San Diego, and VA San Diego Healthcare System.
  • Alan M Zaslavsky
    Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School.
  • Ronald C Kessler
    Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School.

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