Parsing human and biophysical drivers of coral reef regimes.

Journal: Proceedings. Biological sciences
PMID: 30963937

Abstract

Coral reefs worldwide face unprecedented cumulative anthropogenic effects of interacting local human pressures, global climate change and distal social processes. Reefs are also bound by the natural biophysical environment within which they exist. In this context, a key challenge for effective management is understanding how anthropogenic and biophysical conditions interact to drive distinct coral reef configurations. Here, we use machine learning to conduct explanatory predictions on reef ecosystems defined by both fish and benthic communities. Drawing on the most spatially extensive dataset available across the Hawaiian archipelago-20 anthropogenic and biophysical predictors over 620 survey sites-we model the occurrence of four distinct reef regimes and provide a novel approach to quantify the relative influence of human and environmental variables in shaping reef ecosystems. Our findings highlight the nuances of what underpins different coral reef regimes, the overwhelming importance of biophysical predictors and how a reef's natural setting may either expand or narrow the opportunity space for management interventions. The methods developed through this study can help inform reef practitioners and hold promises for replication across a broad range of ecosystems.

Authors

  • Jean-Baptiste Jouffray
    1 Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University , Stockholm , Sweden.
  • Lisa M Wedding
    3 Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University , Stanford, CA 94305 , USA.
  • Albert V Norström
    1 Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University , Stockholm , Sweden.
  • Mary K Donovan
    4 Hawai'i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa , Kaneohe, HI 96744 , USA.
  • Gareth J Williams
    5 School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University , Anglesey LL59 5AB , UK.
  • Larry B Crowder
    6 Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University , Pacific Grove, CA 9395 , USA.
  • Ashley L Erickson
    3 Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University , Stanford, CA 94305 , USA.
  • Alan M Friedlander
    7 Pristine Seas, National Geographic Society , Washington, DC 20036 , USA.
  • Nicholas A J Graham
    8 Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University , Lancaster LA1 4YQ , UK.
  • Jamison M Gove
    9 Ecosystem Science Division, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration , Honolulu, HI, 96818 , USA.
  • Carrie V Kappel
    10 National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California Santa Barbara , Santa Barbara, CA 93101 , USA.
  • John N Kittinger
    11 Center for Oceans, Conservation International , Honolulu, HI 96825 , USA.
  • Joey Lecky
    13 Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa , Honolulu, HI 96822 , USA.
  • Kirsten L L Oleson
    13 Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa , Honolulu, HI 96822 , USA.
  • Kimberly A Selkoe
    10 National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California Santa Barbara , Santa Barbara, CA 93101 , USA.
  • Crow White
    14 Department of Biological Sciences, California Polytechnic State University , San Luis Obispo, CA 93407 , USA.
  • Ivor D Williams
    9 Ecosystem Science Division, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration , Honolulu, HI, 96818 , USA.
  • Magnus Nyström
    1 Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University , Stockholm , Sweden.

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