Machine learning uncovers the most robust self-report predictors of relationship quality across 43 longitudinal couples studies.

Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Published Date: Aug 11, 2020

Abstract

Given the powerful implications of relationship quality for health and well-being, a central mission of relationship science is explaining why some romantic relationships thrive more than others. This large-scale project used machine learning (i.e., Random Forests) to 1) quantify the extent to which relationship quality is predictable and 2) identify which constructs reliably predict relationship quality. Across 43 dyadic longitudinal datasets from 29 laboratories, the top relationship-specific predictors of relationship quality were perceived-partner commitment, appreciation, sexual satisfaction, perceived-partner satisfaction, and conflict. The top individual-difference predictors were life satisfaction, negative affect, depression, attachment avoidance, and attachment anxiety. Overall, relationship-specific variables predicted up to 45% of variance at baseline, and up to 18% of variance at the end of each study. Individual differences also performed well (21% and 12%, respectively). Actor-reported variables (i.e., own relationship-specific and individual-difference variables) predicted two to four times more variance than partner-reported variables (i.e., the partner's ratings on those variables). Importantly, individual differences and partner reports had no predictive effects beyond actor-reported relationship-specific variables alone. These findings imply that the sum of all individual differences and partner experiences exert their influence on relationship quality via a person's own relationship-specific experiences, and effects due to moderation by individual differences and moderation by partner-reports may be quite small. Finally, relationship-quality change (i.e., increases or decreases in relationship quality over the course of a study) was largely unpredictable from any combination of self-report variables. This collective effort should guide future models of relationships.

Authors

  • Samantha Joel
    1 Department of Psychology, University of Utah.
  • Paul W Eastwick
    2 Department of Psychology, University of California, Davis.
  • Colleen J Allison
    Department of Psychology, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada.
  • Ximena B Arriaga
    Department of Psychological Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907.
  • Zachary G Baker
    Department of Psychology, University of Houston, Houston, TX 77204.
  • Eran Bar-Kalifa
    Department of Psychology, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Be'er Sheva 8410501, Israel.
  • Sophie Bergeron
    Department of Psychology, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC H3T 1J4, Canada.
  • Gurit E Birnbaum
    School of Psychology, Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, Herzliya 4610101, Israel.
  • Rebecca L Brock
    Department of Psychology, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68588.
  • Claudia C Brumbaugh
    Department of Psychology, Queens College & Graduate Center, City University of New York, Flushing, NY 11367.
  • Cheryl L Carmichael
    Department of Psychology, Brooklyn College & Graduate Center, City University of New York, Brooklyn, NY 11210.
  • Serena Chen
    Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720.
  • Jennifer Clarke
    Department of Psychology, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO 80918.
  • Rebecca J Cobb
    Department of Human Development and Family Sciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409.
  • Michael K Coolsen
    Department of Management, Marketing, and Entrepreneurship, Shippensburg University, Shippensburg, PA 17257.
  • Jody Davis
    Department of Psychology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284.
  • David C de Jong
    Department of Psychology, Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, NC 28723.
  • Anik Debrot
    Institute of Psychology, University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland.
  • Eva C DeHaas
    Department of Psychology, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada.
  • Jaye L Derrick
    Department of Psychology, University of Houston, Houston, TX 77204.
  • Jami Eller
    Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455.
  • Marie-Joelle Estrada
    Department of Psychology, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627.
  • Ruddy Faure
    Department of Experimental and Applied Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
  • Eli J Finkel
    3 Department of Psychology, Northwestern University.
  • R Chris Fraley
    Department of Psychology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61820.
  • Shelly L Gable
    Department of Psychological & Brain Sciences, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106.
  • Reuma Gadassi-Polack
    Department of Psychology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520.
  • Yuthika U Girme
    Department of Psychology, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada.
  • Amie M Gordon
    Department of Psychology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109.
  • Courtney L Gosnell
    Department of Psychology, Pace University, Pleasantville, NY 10570.
  • Matthew D Hammond
    School of Psychology, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington 6012, New Zealand.
  • Peggy A Hannon
    Department of Health Services, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.
  • Cheryl Harasymchuk
    Department of Psychology, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada.
  • Wilhelm Hofmann
    Department of Psychology, Ruhr University Bochum, 44801 Bochum, Germany.
  • Andrea B Horn
    Department of Psychology and the University Research Priority Program "Dynamics of Healthy Aging," University of Zurich, 8006 Zurich, Switzerland.
  • Emily A Impett
    Department of Psychology, University of Toronto Mississauga, Mississauga, ON L5L 1C6, Canada.
  • Jeremy P Jamieson
    Department of Psychology, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627.
  • Dacher Keltner
    Department of Psychology, Brooklyn College & Graduate Center, City University of New York, Brooklyn, NY 11210.
  • James J Kim
    Department of Psychology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A1, Canada.
  • Jeffrey L Kirchner
    Department of Psychology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599.
  • Esther S Kluwer
    Department of Psychology, Utrecht University, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands.
  • Madoka Kumashiro
    Department of Psychology, Goldsmiths, University of London, London SE14 6NW, United Kingdom.
  • Grace Larson
    Social Cognition Center Cologne, University of Cologne, 50923 Cologne, Germany.
  • Gal Lazarus
    Department of Psychology, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan 5290002, Israel.
  • Jill M Logan
    Department of Psychology, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada.
  • Laura B Luchies
    Center for Social Research, Calvin University, Grand Rapids, MI 49546.
  • Geoff MacDonald
    Department of Psychology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A1, Canada.
  • Laura V Machia
    Department of Psychology, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244.
  • Michael R Maniaci
    Department of Psychology, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL 33431.
  • Jessica A Maxwell
    School of Psychology, University of Auckland, Auckland 1010, New Zealand.
  • Moran Mizrahi
    Department of Behavioral Sciences and Psychology, Ariel University Center of Samaria, Ariel 44837, Israel.
  • Amy Muise
    Department of Psychology, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada.
  • Sylvia Niehuis
    Department of Human Development and Family Sciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409.
  • Brian G Ogolsky
    Department of Human Development and Family Studies, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61820.
  • C Rebecca Oldham
    Department of Human Development and Family Sciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409.
  • Nickola C Overall
    School of Psychology, University of Auckland, Auckland 1010, New Zealand.
  • Meinrad Perrez
    Department of Psychology, University of Fribourg, 1700 Fribourg, Switzerland.
  • Brett J Peters
    Department of Psychology, Ohio University, Athens, OH 45701.
  • Paula R Pietromonaco
    Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, MA 01003.
  • Sally I Powers
    Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, MA 01003.
  • Thery Prok
    Department of Psychological & Brain Sciences, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106.
  • Rony Pshedetzky-Shochat
    Department of Psychology, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan 5290002, Israel.
  • Eshkol Rafaeli
    Department of Psychology, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan 5290002, Israel.
  • Erin L Ramsdell
    Department of Psychology, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68588.
  • Maija Reblin
    Department of Health Outcomes & Behavior, H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, Tampa, FL 33612.
  • Michael Reicherts
    Department of Psychology, University of Fribourg, 1700 Fribourg, Switzerland.
  • Alan Reifman
    Department of Human Development and Family Sciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409.
  • Harry T Reis
    Department of Psychology, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627.
  • Galena K Rhoades
    Department of Psychology, University of Denver, Denver, CO 80208.
  • William S Rholes
    Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843.
  • Francesca Righetti
    Department of Experimental and Applied Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
  • Lindsey M Rodriguez
    Department of Psychology, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701.
  • Ron Rogge
    Department of Psychology, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627.
  • Natalie O Rosen
    Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada.
  • Darby Saxbe
    Department of Psychology, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90007.
  • Haran Sened
    Department of Psychology, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan 5290002, Israel.
  • Jeffry A Simpson
    Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455.
  • Erica B Slotter
    Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Villanova University, Villanova, PA 19085.
  • Scott M Stanley
    Department of Psychology, University of Denver, Denver, CO 80208.
  • Shevaun Stocker
    Human Behavior, Justice, and Diversity Department, University of Wisconsin, Superior, WI 54880.
  • Cathy Surra
    Department of Human Development and Family Sciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712.
  • Hagar Ter Kuile
    Department of Psychology, Utrecht University, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands.
  • Allison A Vaughn
    Department of Psychology, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182.
  • Amanda M Vicary
    Department of Psychology, Illinois Wesleyan University, Bloomington, IL 61701.
  • Mariko L Visserman
    Department of Psychology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A1, Canada.
  • Scott Wolf
    Department of Psychology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599.

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