Forecasting acute childhood malnutrition in Kenya using machine learning and diverse sets of indicators.
Journal:
PloS one
PMID:
40367047
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Malnutrition is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality for children under-5 globally. Low- and middle-income countries, such as Kenya, bear the greatest burden of malnutrition. The Kenyan government has been collecting clinical indicators, including on malnutrition, using District Health Information Software-2 (DHIS2) for over a decade. We aim to address the existing gap in decision-makers' ability to develop and utilize malnutrition forecasting capabilities for timely interventions. Specifically, our objectives include: develop a spatio-temporal machine learning model to forecast acute malnutrition among children in Kenya using DHIS2 data, enhance forecasting capability by integrating external complementary indicators, such as publicly available satellite imagery-driven signals, and forecast acute malnutrition at various stages and time horizons, including moderate, severe, and aggregated cases.