Development of a Supervised Learning Algorithm for Detection of Potential Disease Reemergence: A Proof of Concept.

Journal: Health security
Published Date: Jan 1, 2019

Abstract

Infectious disease reemergence is an important yet ambiguous concept that lacks a quantitative definition. Currently, reemergence is identified without specific criteria describing what constitutes a reemergent event. This practice affects reproducible assessments of high-consequence public health events and disease response prioritization. This in turn can lead to misallocation of resources. More important, early recognition of reemergence facilitates effective mitigation. We used a supervised machine learning approach to detect potential disease reemergence. We demonstrate the feasibility of applying a machine learning classifier to identify reemergence events in a systematic way for 4 different infectious diseases. The algorithm is applicable to temporal trends of disease incidence and includes disease-specific features to identify potential reemergence. Through this study, we offer a structured means of identifying potential reemergence using a data-driven approach.

Authors

  • Maneesha Chitanvis
    Maneesha Chitanvis, MPH, and Forest Altherr, MPH, are Graduate Research Assistants; Nileena Velappan, MS, Attelia Hollander, Emily Alipio-Lyon, and Grace Vuyisich are Research Technologists; and Alina Deshpande, PhD, is Group Leader; all in Biosecurity and Public Health, Bioscience Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM.
  • Ashlynn R Daughton
    Ashlynn R. Daughton, MPH, Nidhi Parikh, PhD, Geoffrey Fairchild, PhD, and William Rosenberger are Scientists, Analytics, Intelligence, and Technology Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM.
  • Forest Altherr
    Maneesha Chitanvis, MPH, and Forest Altherr, MPH, are Graduate Research Assistants; Nileena Velappan, MS, Attelia Hollander, Emily Alipio-Lyon, and Grace Vuyisich are Research Technologists; and Alina Deshpande, PhD, is Group Leader; all in Biosecurity and Public Health, Bioscience Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM.
  • Nidhi Parikh
    Ashlynn R. Daughton, MPH, Nidhi Parikh, PhD, Geoffrey Fairchild, PhD, and William Rosenberger are Scientists, Analytics, Intelligence, and Technology Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM.
  • Geoffrey Fairchild
    Ashlynn R. Daughton, MPH, Nidhi Parikh, PhD, Geoffrey Fairchild, PhD, and William Rosenberger are Scientists, Analytics, Intelligence, and Technology Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM.
  • William Rosenberger
    Ashlynn R. Daughton, MPH, Nidhi Parikh, PhD, Geoffrey Fairchild, PhD, and William Rosenberger are Scientists, Analytics, Intelligence, and Technology Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM.
  • Nileena Velappan
    Maneesha Chitanvis, MPH, and Forest Altherr, MPH, are Graduate Research Assistants; Nileena Velappan, MS, Attelia Hollander, Emily Alipio-Lyon, and Grace Vuyisich are Research Technologists; and Alina Deshpande, PhD, is Group Leader; all in Biosecurity and Public Health, Bioscience Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM.
  • Attelia Hollander
    Maneesha Chitanvis, MPH, and Forest Altherr, MPH, are Graduate Research Assistants; Nileena Velappan, MS, Attelia Hollander, Emily Alipio-Lyon, and Grace Vuyisich are Research Technologists; and Alina Deshpande, PhD, is Group Leader; all in Biosecurity and Public Health, Bioscience Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM.
  • Emily Alipio-Lyon
    Maneesha Chitanvis, MPH, and Forest Altherr, MPH, are Graduate Research Assistants; Nileena Velappan, MS, Attelia Hollander, Emily Alipio-Lyon, and Grace Vuyisich are Research Technologists; and Alina Deshpande, PhD, is Group Leader; all in Biosecurity and Public Health, Bioscience Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM.
  • Grace Vuyisich
    Maneesha Chitanvis, MPH, and Forest Altherr, MPH, are Graduate Research Assistants; Nileena Velappan, MS, Attelia Hollander, Emily Alipio-Lyon, and Grace Vuyisich are Research Technologists; and Alina Deshpande, PhD, is Group Leader; all in Biosecurity and Public Health, Bioscience Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM.
  • Derek Aberle
    Derek Aberle is a Software Developer, Applied Modern Physics, Physics Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM.
  • Alina Deshpande
    Maneesha Chitanvis, MPH, and Forest Altherr, MPH, are Graduate Research Assistants; Nileena Velappan, MS, Attelia Hollander, Emily Alipio-Lyon, and Grace Vuyisich are Research Technologists; and Alina Deshpande, PhD, is Group Leader; all in Biosecurity and Public Health, Bioscience Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM.

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