Machine learning versus regression modelling in predicting individual healthcare costs from a representative sample of the nationwide claims database in France.

Journal: The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care
PMID:

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Innovative provider payment methods that avoid adverse selection and reward performance require accurate prediction of healthcare costs based on individual risk adjustment. Our objective was to compare the performances of a simple neural network (NN) and random forest (RF) to a generalized linear model (GLM) for the prediction of medical cost at the individual level.

Authors

  • Alexandre Vimont
    Public Health Expertise (PHE), Paris, France. alexandre.vimont@ph-expertise.com.
  • Henri Leleu
    Public Health Expertise (PHE), Paris, France.
  • Isabelle Durand-Zaleski
    Assistance Publique Hôpitaux de Paris, URC-ECO, CRESS-UMR1153, Paris, France.