The relationship between rising temperatures and malaria incidence in Hainan, China, from 1984 to 2010: a longitudinal cohort study.

Journal: The Lancet. Planetary health
Published Date:

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The influence of rising global temperatures on malaria dynamics and distribution remains controversial, especially in central highland regions. We aimed to address this subject by studying the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of malaria and the effect of climate change on malaria transmission over 27 years in Hainan, an island province in China.

Authors

  • Zengmiao Wang
    State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
  • Yonghong Liu
    State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
  • Yapin Li
    Central Theater Center for Disease Control and Prevention of PLA, Beijing, China.
  • Guangze Wang
    Hainan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Haikou, China.
  • José Lourenço
    Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal.
  • Moritz Kraemer
    Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA; Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Qixin He
    Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Museum of Zoology, University of Michigan, 1109 Geddes Ave., Ann Arbor, MI, 48109-1079, USA.
  • Bernard Cazelles
    Institut de Biologie de l'École Normale Supérieure, Unité Mixte de Recherche 8197, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique et École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France; Unité Mixte Internationnale 209, Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Complex Systems, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement et Sorbonne Université, Bondy, France.
  • Yidan Li
    College of Animal Science and Technology, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun, China.
  • Ruixue Wang
    State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; School of National Security and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
  • Dongqi Gao
    Central Theater Center for Disease Control and Prevention of PLA, Beijing, China.
  • Yuchun Li
    Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Xinxiang Medical University, No. 601 Jinsui Road, Hongqi District, Xinxiang City, 453003, Henan Province, People's Republic of China.
  • Wenjing Song
    Central Theater Center for Disease Control and Prevention of PLA, Beijing, China.
  • Dingwei Sun
    Hainan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Haikou, China.
  • Lu Dong
    Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
  • Oliver G Pybus
    Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Department of Pathobiology and Population Science, The Royal Veterinary College, London, UK.
  • Nils Chr Stenseth
    Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway. Electronic address: n.c.stenseth@ibv.uio.no.
  • Huaiyu Tian
    State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China. Electronic address: tianhuaiyu@gmail.com.