A comparative study on TB incidence and HIVTB coinfection using machine learning models on WHO global TB dataset.

Journal: Scientific reports
PMID:

Abstract

Tuberculosis, a deadly and contagious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, remains a significant global public health threat. HIV co-infection significantly increases the risk of active TB recurrence and prolongs medical treatment for tuberculosis (TB). The study focuses on using advanced machine learning (ML) techniques to predict TB incidence and HIV-TB co-infection using data from the 2023 World Health Organization (WHO) Global TB burden database. The estimated rate for all types of tuberculosis per 100,000 people (E_inc_100k) and the estimated rate of HIV-positive tuberculosis incidence per 100,000 people (e_inc_tbhiv_100k) are the two main goal factors in the dataset. F1 score, accuracy, precision, recall, and the Receiver Operating Characteristic-Area Under the Curve (ROC-AUC) were among the important metrics used to evaluate the model's performance. With 99.7% accuracy, 99.80% precision, 99.6% recall, a 99.7% F1 score, and a 99.7% ROC-AUC score, the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) model outperformed other models for e_inc_100k. The e_inc_tbhiv_100k records outstanding performance from the Gradient Boosting (GB) model, with 98.58% accuracy, 98.32% precision, 98.73% recall, a 98.53% F1 score, and a 98.58% ROC-AUC score. Finally, the study aligns with the UNAIDS and WHO End TB Strategy, indicating a progression in combating TB and TB-HIV co-infection in public health workflow.

Authors

  • Declan I Emegano
    Operational Research Center in Healthcare, Near East University, Nicosia/TRNC, Mersin 10, 99138, Turkey. declanikechukwu.emegano@neu.edu.tr.
  • Basil B Duwa
    Operational Research Center in Healthcare, Near East University, Nicosia/TRNC, Mersin 10, 99138, Turkey.
  • A G Usman
    Department of Analytical Chemistry, Faculty of Pharmacy, Near East University, TRNC, Mersin 99138, Turkey.
  • Hijaz Ahmad
    Department of Computer Engineering, Biruni University, Istanbul 34025, Turkey.
  • Dilber Uzun Ozsahin
    Near East University, Nicosia/TRNC, Mersin-10, 99138, Turkey.
  • Sameh Askar
    Department of Statistics and Operations Research, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.