Forecasting birth trends in Ethiopia using time-series and machine-learning models: a secondary data analysis of EDHS surveys (2000-2019).

Journal: BMJ open
Published Date:

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa, faces significant demographic transitions, with fertility rates playing a central role in shaping economic and healthcare policies. Family planning programmes face challenges due to funding limitations. The recent suspension of the US Agency for International Development funding exacerbates these issues, highlighting the need for accurate birth forecasting to guide policy and resource allocation. This study applied time-series and advanced machine-learning models to forecast future birth trends in Ethiopia.

Authors

  • Meron Asmamaw Alemayehu
    Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Amhara, Ethiopia merryalem101@gmail.com.
  • Amare Genetu Ejigu
    Department of Midwifery, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Injibara University, Injibara, Ethiopia.
  • Habitamu Mekonen
    Department of Human Nutrition, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Amhara, Ethiopia.
  • Abraham Teym
    Department of Environmental Health, College of Health Sciences, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia.
  • Abathun Temesegen
    Department of Environmental Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Injibara University, Injibara, Ethiopia.
  • Gashaw Melkie Bayeh
    Department of Environmental Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Injibara University, Injibara, Ethiopia.
  • Almaw Genet Yeshiwas
    Department of Environmental Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Injibara University, Injibara, Ethiopia.
  • Rahel Mulatie Anteneh
    Depatment of Public Health, College of Health Science, Debre Tabor University, Debre Tabor, Ethiopia.
  • Getaneh Atikilit
    Depatment of Public Health, College of Health Science, Debre Tabor University, Debre Tabor, Ethiopia.
  • Tesfaneh Shimels
    Depatment of Public Health, College of Health Science, Debre Tabor University, Debre Tabor, Ethiopia.
  • Chalachew Yenew
    Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Public Health, Debre Tabor University, Debre Tabor, Ethiopia.
  • Wolde Melese Ayele
    Department of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Injibara University, Injibara, Ethiopia.
  • Ahmed Fentaw Ahmed
    Department of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Injibara University, Injibara, Ethiopia.
  • Assefa Andargie Kassa
    Department of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Injibara University, Injibara, Ethiopia.
  • Tilahun Degu Tsega
    Department of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Injibara University, Injibara, Ethiopia.
  • Sintayehu Simie Tsega
    Department of Medical Nursing, School of Nursing, College of Medicine and Health Science, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.
  • Berhanu Abebaw Mekonnen
    Department of Nutrition and Dietetics, School of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Amhara, Ethiopia.
  • Birhanemaskal Malkamu
    Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, College of Health Sciences, Debre Tabor University, Debre Tabor, Ethiopia.
  • Wondimnew Desalegn Addis
    Depatment of Public Health, College of Health Science, Debre Tabor University, Debre Tabor, Ethiopia.
  • Getasew Yirdaw
    Department of Environmental Health, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia.
  • Chalachew Abiyu Ayalew
    Department of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Injibara University, Injibara, Ethiopia.
  • Kalaab Esubalew
    Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Injibara University, Injibara, Ethiopia.
  • Daniel Adane
    Department of Midwifery, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Injibara University, Injibara, Ethiopia.
  • Zeamanuel Anteneh Yigzaw
    Department of Health Promotion and Behavioral Sciences, School of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.