Comparison of autoregressive integrated moving average model and generalised regression neural network model for prediction of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China: a time-series study.

Journal: BMJ open
Published Date:

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a serious threat to public health in China, accounting for almost 90% cases reported globally. Infectious disease prediction may help in disease prevention despite some uncontrollable influence factors. This study conducted a comparison between a hybrid model and two single models in forecasting the monthly incidence of HFRS in China.

Authors

  • Ya-Wen Wang
    School of Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
  • Zhong-Zhou Shen
    School of Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
  • Yu Jiang
    School of Pharmacy and Food Engineering, Wuyi University, Jiangmen, China.