Risk prediction for malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas: logistic regression versus machine learning.

Journal: Scientific reports
Published Date: Nov 18, 2020

Abstract

Most models for predicting malignant pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms were developed based on logistic regression (LR) analysis. Our study aimed to develop risk prediction models using machine learning (ML) and LR techniques and compare their performances. This was a multinational, multi-institutional, retrospective study. Clinical variables including age, sex, main duct diameter, cyst size, mural nodule, and tumour location were factors considered for model development (MD). After the division into a MD set and a test set (2:1), the best ML and LR models were developed by training with the MD set using a tenfold cross validation. The test area under the receiver operating curves (AUCs) of the two models were calculated using an independent test set. A total of 3,708 patients were included. The stacked ensemble algorithm in the ML model and variable combinations containing all variables in the LR model were the most chosen during 200 repetitions. After 200 repetitions, the mean AUCs of the ML and LR models were comparable (0.725 vs. 0.725). The performances of the ML and LR models were comparable. The LR model was more practical than ML counterpart, because of its convenience in clinical use and simple interpretability.

Authors

  • Jae Seung Kang
    Department of Surgery and Cancer Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, 101 Daehak-ro, Chongno-gu, Seoul, 03080, South Korea.
  • Chanhee Lee
    Interdisciplinary Program in Bioinformatics, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
  • Wookyeong Song
    Department of Statistics and Interdisciplinary Program in Biostatistics, Seoul National University, 56-1 Shillim-Dong, Kwanak-Gu, Seoul, 151-747, South Korea.
  • Wonho Choo
    Department of Statistics and Interdisciplinary Program in Biostatistics, Seoul National University, 56-1 Shillim-Dong, Kwanak-Gu, Seoul, 151-747, South Korea.
  • Seungyeoun Lee
    Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Sejong University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
  • Sungyoung Lee
    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea.
  • Youngmin Han
    Department of Surgery and Cancer Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, 101 Daehak-ro, Chongno-gu, Seoul, 03080, South Korea.
  • Claudio Bassi
    General Surgery B, The Pancreas Institute, Verona University Hospital Trust, Piazzale L.A. Scuro, 10, 37134, Verona, Italy.
  • Roberto Salvia
    General Surgery B, The Pancreas Institute, Verona University Hospital Trust, Piazzale L.A. Scuro, 10, 37134, Verona, Italy.
  • Giovanni Marchegiani
    General Surgery B, The Pancreas Institute, Verona University Hospital Trust, Piazzale L.A. Scuro, 10, 37134, Verona, Italy.
  • Cristopher L Wolfgang
    Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, USA.
  • Jin He
  • Alex B Blair
    Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, USA.
  • Michael D Kluger
    Division of Gastrointestinal and Endocrine Surgery, Department of Surgery, College of Physicians and Surgeon, Columbia University, New York, USA.
  • Gloria H Su
    Department of Pathology and Cell Biology, Columbia University Medical Center, New York, USA.
  • Song Cheol Kim
    Department of Surgery, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Seoul, South Korea.
  • Ki-Byung Song
    Department of Surgery, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Seoul, South Korea.
  • Masakazu Yamamoto
    Department of Surgery, Institute of Gastroenterology, Tokyo Women's Medical University, Tokyo, Japan.
  • Ryota Higuchi
    Department of Surgery, Institute of Gastroenterology, Tokyo Women's Medical University, Tokyo, Japan.
  • Takashi Hatori
    Department of Surgery, Institute of Gastroenterology, Tokyo Women's Medical University, Tokyo, Japan.
  • Ching-Yao Yang
    Department of Surgery, National Taiwan University Hospital and National Taiwan Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
  • Hiroki Yamaue
    Second Department of Surgery School of Medicine Wakayama Medical University Wakayama Japan.
  • Seiko Hirono
    Second Department of Surgery School of Medicine Wakayama Medical University Wakayama Japan.
  • Sohei Satoi
    Department of Surgery, Kansai Medical University, Osaka, Japan.
  • Tsutomu Fujii
    Department of Surgery and Science, Faculty of Medicine Academic Assembly, University of Toyama Toyama Japan.
  • Satoshi Hirano
    Department of Rehabilitation Medicine I, School of Medicine, Fujita Health University, Toyoake, Japan.
  • Wenhui Lou
    Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
  • Yasushi Hashimoto
    Department of Surgery, Institute of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan.
  • Yasuhiro Shimizu
    Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya, Japan.
  • Marco Del Chiaro
    Pancreatic Surgery Unit, Division of Surgery, Department of Clinical Science, Intervention and Technology (CLINTEC), Karolinska Institute At Center for Digestive Diseases, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden.
  • Roberto Valente
    Unit of Digestive Surgery, Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Surgery, and Liver Transplantation, Henri Mondor Hospital, AP-HP, Créteil, France., Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary-Liver Transplant Surgery Unit, The Royal Free Hospital, London, UK Unit of Digestive Surgery, Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Surgery, and Liver Transplantation, Henri Mondor Hospital, AP-HP, Créteil, France, Inserm, Unité 955-IMRB, Créteil, France.
  • Matthias Lohr
    Department of Clinical Science, Intervention, and Technology (CLINTEC), Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.
  • Dong Wook Choi
    Department of Surgery, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
  • Seong Ho Choi
    Department of Surgery, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
  • Jin Seok Heo
    Department of Surgery, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
  • Fuyuhiko Motoi
    Department of Surgery 1, Yamagata University, 2-2-2 Iida-Nishi, Yamagata, 990-9585, Japan.
  • Ippei Matsumoto
    Department of Surgery, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, Japan.
  • Woo Jung Lee
    Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
  • Chang Moo Kang
    Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
  • Yi-Ming Shyr
    Division of General Surgery, Department of Surgery, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, and National Yang Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan. Electronic address: ymshyr@gmail.com.
  • Shin-E Wang
    Department of Surgery, Taipei Veterans General Hospital and National Yang Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan.
  • Ho-Seong Han
    Department of Surgery, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine , Seongnam-si, Korea.
  • Yoo-Seok Yoon
    Department of Surgery, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine , Seongnam-si, Korea.
  • Marc G Besselink
    Department of Surgery, Cancer Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. m.g.besselink@amsterdamumc.nl.
  • Nadine C M van Huijgevoort
    Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam Gastroenterology Endocrinology Metabolism, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
  • Masayuki Sho
    Department of Surgery, Nara Medical University, Nara, Japan.
  • Hiroaki Nagano
  • Sang Geol Kim
    Department of Surgery, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, South Korea.
  • Goro Honda
    Department of Surgery, Tokyo Metropolitan Cancer and Infectious Diseases Center Komagome Hospital, Tokyo, Japan.
  • Yinmo Yang
    Department of General Surgery, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China.
  • Hee Chul Yu
    Department of Surgery, Jeonbuk National University Medical School, Jeonju, South Korea.
  • Jae Do Yang
    Department of Surgery, Jeonbuk National University Medical School, Jeonju, South Korea.
  • Jun Chul Chung
    Department of Surgery, Soonchunhyang University, Asan, South Korea.
  • Yuichi Nagakawa
  • Hyung Il Seo
    Department of Surgery, Pusan National University, Pusan, South Korea.
  • Yoo Jin Choi
    Department of Surgery and Cancer Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, 101 Daehak-ro, Chongno-gu, Seoul, 03080, South Korea.
  • Yoonhyeong Byun
    Department of Surgery and Cancer Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, 101 Daehak-ro, Chongno-gu, Seoul, 03080, South Korea.
  • Hongbeom Kim
    Department of Surgery and Cancer Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, 101 Daehak-ro, Chongno-gu, Seoul, 03080, South Korea.
  • Wooil Kwon
    Department of Surgery and Cancer Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, 101 Daehak-ro, Chongno-gu, Seoul, 03080, South Korea.
  • Taesung Park
    Interdisciplinary Program in Bioinformatics, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
  • Jin-Young Jang

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