A Simulated Prospective Evaluation of a Deep Learning Model for Real-Time Prediction of Clinical Deterioration Among Ward Patients.

Journal: Critical care medicine
PMID:

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: The National Early Warning Score, Modified Early Warning Score, and quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment can predict clinical deterioration. These scores exhibit only moderate performance and are often evaluated using aggregated measures over time. A simulated prospective validation strategy that assesses multiple predictions per patient-day would provide the best pragmatic evaluation. We developed a deep recurrent neural network deterioration model and conducted a simulated prospective evaluation.

Authors

  • Parth K Shah
    Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
  • Jennifer C Ginestra
    Department of Medicine, Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
  • Lyle H Ungar
    Department of Computer & Information Science, University of Pennsylvania.
  • Paul Junker
    Clinical Effectiveness and Quality Improvement, Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
  • Jeff I Rohrbach
    Clinical Effectiveness and Quality Improvement, Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
  • Neil O Fishman
    University of Pennsylvania Health System, Philadelphia, PA.
  • Gary E Weissman
    1 Pulmonary, Allergy, and Critical Care Division, Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania.