Machine learning prediction of breast cancer local recurrence localization, and distant metastasis after local recurrences.

Journal: Scientific reports
PMID:

Abstract

Local recurrences (LR) can occur within residual breast tissue, chest wall, skin, or newly formed scar tissue. Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies can extract a wide range of tumor features from large datasets helping in oncological decision-making. Recently, machine learning (ML) models have been developed to predict breast cancer recurrence or distant metastasis (DM). However, there is still a lack of models that consider the localization of LR as a tumor feature. To address this gap, here, we analysed data from 154 patients including pathological, clinical, and follow-up data (with an average follow-up of 133.16 months) on both primary tumors (PT) and recurrences. By using ML methods we predicted the localization of LR and the occurrence of DM after LR. The performance (ROC AUC) of the best ML models was 0.75, and 0.69 for predicting LR in breast parenchyma, and surgical scar tissue, respectively, and 0.74 for predicting DM after LR. We identified recurrence localization, and the time elapsed between the detection of primary breast carcinoma and the recurrence, and adjuvant chemotherapy as the most important features associated with further DM. We conclude that combining traditional prognostic factors with ML may provide important tools in the risk assessment of patients with breast LR.

Authors

  • Kristóf Attila Kovács
    2nd Department of Pathology, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary.
  • Csaba Kerepesi
    Division of Genetics, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
  • Dalma Rapcsák
    National Institute of Oncology, Budapest, Hungary.
  • Lilla Madaras
    Department of Pathology, Forensic and Insurance Medicine, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary.
  • Ákos Nagy
    Department of Pathology and Experimental Cancer Research, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary.
  • Anikó Takács
    Department of Pathology, Forensic and Insurance Medicine, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary.
  • Magdolna Dank
    Department of Internal Medicine and Oncology (B.V., G.N., Z.H., N.S., B.K.S., M.D., P.I.), Faculty of Medicine, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary.
  • Gyöngyvér Szentmártoni
    Department of Internal Medicine and Oncology, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary.
  • Attila Marcell Szász
    Department of Internal Medicine and Oncology, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary.
  • Janina Kulka
    Department of Pathology, Forensic and Insurance Medicine, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary.
  • Anna Mária Tőkés
    Department of Pathology, Forensic and Insurance Medicine, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary. tokes.anna.maria@semmelweis.hu.