Deep Learning Prediction of Survival in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Using Chest Radiographs.

Journal: Radiology
Published Date: Jun 7, 2022

Abstract

Background Preexisting indexes for predicting the prognosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) do not use radiologic information and are impractical because they involve complex history assessments or exercise tests. Purpose To develop and to validate a deep learning-based survival prediction model in patients with COPD (DLSP) using chest radiographs, in addition to other clinical factors. Materials and Methods In this retrospective study, data from patients with COPD who underwent postbronchodilator spirometry and chest radiography from 2011-2015 were collected and split into training ( = 3475), validation ( = 435), and internal test ( = 315) data sets. The algorithm for predicting survival from chest radiographs was trained (hereafter, DLSP), and then age, body mass index, and forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV) were integrated within the model (hereafter, DLSP). For external test, three independent cohorts were collected ( = 394, 416, and 337). The discrimination performance of DLSP was evaluated by using time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (TD AUCs) at 5-year survival. Goodness of fit was assessed by using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Using one external test data set, DLSP was compared with four COPD-specific clinical indexes: BODE, ADO, COPD Assessment Test (CAT), and St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ). Results DLSP had a higher performance at predicting 5-year survival than FEV in two of the three external test cohorts (TD AUC: 0.73 vs 0.63 [ = .004]; 0.67 vs 0.60 [ = .01]; 0.76 vs 0.77 [ = .91]). DLSP demonstrated good calibration in all cohorts. The DLSP model showed no differences in TD AUC compared with BODE (0.87 vs 0.80; = .34), ADO (0.86 vs 0.89; = .51), and SGRQ (0.86 vs 0.70; = .09), and showed higher TD AUC than CAT (0.93 vs 0.55; < .001). Conclusion A deep learning model using chest radiographs was capable of predicting survival in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. © RSNA, 2022

Authors

  • Ju Gang Nam
    Department of Radiology, Seoul National College of Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, 101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul, 03080, Korea (H.C., S.H.Y., S.J.P., C.M.P., J.H.L., H. Kim, E.J.H., S.J.Y., J.G.N., C.H.L., J.M.G.); CHESS Center, The First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China (Q.X., J.L.); Department of Radiology, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Gyeonggi-do, Korea (K.H.L.); Department of Internal Medicine, Incheon Medical Center, Incheon, Korea (J.Y.K.); Department of Radiology, Seoul Medical Center, Seoul, Korea (Y.K.L.); Department of Radiology, National Medical Center, Seoul, Korea (H. Ko); Department of Radiology, Myongji Hospital, Gyeonggi-do, Korea (K.H.K.); and Department of Radiology, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwanju, Korea (Y.H.K.).
  • Hye-Rin Kang
    From the Department of Radiology (J.G.N., H.K., J.M.G., C.M.P.) and Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine (C.H.L.), Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Seoul National University College of Medicine, 101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul 03080, Republic of Korea (J.G.N., H.K., C.R., J.M.G., C.H.L., C.M.P.); Division of Pulmonary Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Veteran Health Service Medical Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea (H.R.K.); Department of Radiology (S.M.L.), Research Institute of Radiology (S.M.L.), Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine (Y.M.O.), and Clinical Research Center for Chronic Obstructive Airway Diseases (Y.M.O.), Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Institute of Radiation Medicine (J.M.G., C.M.P.) and Institute of Medical and Biological Engineering (C.M.P.), Seoul National University Medical Research Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
  • Sang Min Lee
    Department of Radiology and Research Institute of Radiology, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Seoul, Korea.
  • Hyungjin Kim
    Department of Radiology, Seoul National College of Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, 101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul, 03080, Korea (H.C., S.H.Y., S.J.P., C.M.P., J.H.L., H. Kim, E.J.H., S.J.Y., J.G.N., C.H.L., J.M.G.); CHESS Center, The First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China (Q.X., J.L.); Department of Radiology, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Gyeonggi-do, Korea (K.H.L.); Department of Internal Medicine, Incheon Medical Center, Incheon, Korea (J.Y.K.); Department of Radiology, Seoul Medical Center, Seoul, Korea (Y.K.L.); Department of Radiology, National Medical Center, Seoul, Korea (H. Ko); Department of Radiology, Myongji Hospital, Gyeonggi-do, Korea (K.H.K.); and Department of Radiology, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwanju, Korea (Y.H.K.).
  • Chanyoung Rhee
    From the Department of Radiology (J.G.N., H.K., J.M.G., C.M.P.) and Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine (C.H.L.), Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Seoul National University College of Medicine, 101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul 03080, Republic of Korea (J.G.N., H.K., C.R., J.M.G., C.H.L., C.M.P.); Division of Pulmonary Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Veteran Health Service Medical Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea (H.R.K.); Department of Radiology (S.M.L.), Research Institute of Radiology (S.M.L.), Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine (Y.M.O.), and Clinical Research Center for Chronic Obstructive Airway Diseases (Y.M.O.), Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Institute of Radiation Medicine (J.M.G., C.M.P.) and Institute of Medical and Biological Engineering (C.M.P.), Seoul National University Medical Research Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
  • Jin Mo Goo
    Department of Radiology, Seoul National College of Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, 101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul, 03080, Korea (H.C., S.H.Y., S.J.P., C.M.P., J.H.L., H. Kim, E.J.H., S.J.Y., J.G.N., C.H.L., J.M.G.); CHESS Center, The First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China (Q.X., J.L.); Department of Radiology, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Gyeonggi-do, Korea (K.H.L.); Department of Internal Medicine, Incheon Medical Center, Incheon, Korea (J.Y.K.); Department of Radiology, Seoul Medical Center, Seoul, Korea (Y.K.L.); Department of Radiology, National Medical Center, Seoul, Korea (H. Ko); Department of Radiology, Myongji Hospital, Gyeonggi-do, Korea (K.H.K.); and Department of Radiology, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwanju, Korea (Y.H.K.).
  • Yeon-Mok Oh
    Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Asthma Center, and Clinical Research Center for Chronic Obstructive Airway Diseases, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
  • Chang-Hoon Lee
    From the Department of Radiology (J.G.N., H.K., J.M.G., C.M.P.) and Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine (C.H.L.), Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Seoul National University College of Medicine, 101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul 03080, Republic of Korea (J.G.N., H.K., C.R., J.M.G., C.H.L., C.M.P.); Division of Pulmonary Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Veteran Health Service Medical Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea (H.R.K.); Department of Radiology (S.M.L.), Research Institute of Radiology (S.M.L.), Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine (Y.M.O.), and Clinical Research Center for Chronic Obstructive Airway Diseases (Y.M.O.), Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Institute of Radiation Medicine (J.M.G., C.M.P.) and Institute of Medical and Biological Engineering (C.M.P.), Seoul National University Medical Research Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
  • Chang Min Park
    Department of Radiology, Seoul National College of Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, 101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul, 03080, Korea (H.C., S.H.Y., S.J.P., C.M.P., J.H.L., H. Kim, E.J.H., S.J.Y., J.G.N., C.H.L., J.M.G.); CHESS Center, The First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China (Q.X., J.L.); Department of Radiology, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Gyeonggi-do, Korea (K.H.L.); Department of Internal Medicine, Incheon Medical Center, Incheon, Korea (J.Y.K.); Department of Radiology, Seoul Medical Center, Seoul, Korea (Y.K.L.); Department of Radiology, National Medical Center, Seoul, Korea (H. Ko); Department of Radiology, Myongji Hospital, Gyeonggi-do, Korea (K.H.K.); and Department of Radiology, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwanju, Korea (Y.H.K.).

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