Innovative approaches for accurate ozone prediction and health risk analysis in South Korea: The combined effectiveness of deep learning and AirQ.
Journal:
The Science of the total environment
Published Date:
Jun 21, 2024
Abstract
Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone (O) poses significant health risks, particularly respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, and mortality. This study addresses the pressing need for accurate O forecasting to mitigate these risks, focusing on South Korea. We introduce Deep Bias Correction (Deep-BC), a novel framework leveraging Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), to refine hourly O forecasts from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Our approach involves training Deep-BC using data from 2016 to 2019, including CMAQ's 72-hour O forecasts, 31 meteorological variables from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and previous days' station measurements of 6 air pollutants. Deep-BC significantly outperforms CMAQ in 2021, reducing biases in O forecasts. Furthermore, we utilize Deep-BC's daily maximum 8-hour average O (MDA8 O) forecasts as input for the AirQ+ model to assess O's potential impact on mortality across seven major provinces of South Korea: Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Daejeon, Ulsan, and Sejong. Short-term O exposure is associated with 0.40 % to 0.48 % of natural cause and respiratory deaths and 0.67 % to 0.81 % of cardiovascular deaths. Gender-specific analysis reveals higher mortality rates among men, particularly from respiratory causes. Our findings underscore the critical need for region-specific interventions to address air pollution's detrimental effects on public health in South Korea. By providing improved O predictions and quantifying its impact on mortality, this research offers valuable insights for formulating targeted strategies to mitigate air pollution's adverse effects. Moreover, we highlight the urgency of proactive measures in health policies, emphasizing the significance of accurate forecasting and effective interventions to safeguard public health from the deleterious effects of air pollution.