Prediction of 30-day readmission in diabetes management using Machine learning.
Journal:
Computers in biology and medicine
Published Date:
Jun 20, 2025
Abstract
This study aims to develop a robust and accurate model to forecast 30-day readmissions for patients with diabetes by leveraging machine learning techniques. Diabetes, being a chronic condition with complex care needs, often leads to frequent hospital readmissions. By predicting the likelihood of readmission within this critical timeframe, the study aims to empower healthcare providers to identify high-risk patients and implement targeted interventions proactively. The study utilized a dataset of 352 records from a diabetes specialty clinic in Varanasi, India. The study constructed prediction models utilizing Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and XGBoost. The models were assessed using precision, recall, F1-score, and AUC-ROC. The results demonstrate that XGBoost attained the highest precision (0.84), recall (0.87), and F1-score (0.85), establishing it as the most effective model for predicting 30-day readmissions. Nevertheless, the Random Forest model demonstrated a superior AUC-ROC value of 0.94, indicating its ability to detect readmission cases accurately. The study's findings indicate that XGBoost demonstrates superior prediction accuracy, although Random Forest exhibits greater suitability for smaller datasets because of its strength against overfitting. These findings emphasize the significance of carefully choosing and optimizing machine learning models for healthcare applications. The study enhances patient care by allowing healthcare practitioners to identify high-risk patients and conduct focused interventions, potentially lessening the burden of readmissions.
