Using brain structural neuroimaging measures to predict psychosis onset for individuals at clinical high-risk.

Journal: Molecular psychiatry
Published Date: Feb 9, 2024

Abstract

Machine learning approaches using structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) can be informative for disease classification, although their ability to predict psychosis is largely unknown. We created a model with individuals at CHR who developed psychosis later (CHR-PS+) from healthy controls (HCs) that can differentiate each other. We also evaluated whether we could distinguish CHR-PS+ individuals from those who did not develop psychosis later (CHR-PS-) and those with uncertain follow-up status (CHR-UNK). T1-weighted structural brain MRI scans from 1165 individuals at CHR (CHR-PS+, n = 144; CHR-PS-, n = 793; and CHR-UNK, n = 228), and 1029 HCs, were obtained from 21 sites. We used ComBat to harmonize measures of subcortical volume, cortical thickness and surface area data and corrected for non-linear effects of age and sex using a general additive model. CHR-PS+ (n = 120) and HC (n = 799) data from 20 sites served as a training dataset, which we used to build a classifier. The remaining samples were used external validation datasets to evaluate classifier performance (test, independent confirmatory, and independent group [CHR-PS- and CHR-UNK] datasets). The accuracy of the classifier on the training and independent confirmatory datasets was 85% and 73% respectively. Regional cortical surface area measures-including those from the right superior frontal, right superior temporal, and bilateral insular cortices strongly contributed to classifying CHR-PS+ from HC. CHR-PS- and CHR-UNK individuals were more likely to be classified as HC compared to CHR-PS+ (classification rate to HC: CHR-PS+, 30%; CHR-PS-, 73%; CHR-UNK, 80%). We used multisite sMRI to train a classifier to predict psychosis onset in CHR individuals, and it showed promise predicting CHR-PS+ in an independent sample. The results suggest that when considering adolescent brain development, baseline MRI scans for CHR individuals may be helpful to identify their prognosis. Future prospective studies are required about whether the classifier could be actually helpful in the clinical settings.

Authors

  • Yinghan Zhu
    Center for Evolutionary Cognitive Sciences, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
  • Norihide Maikusa
    Center for Evolutionary Cognitive Sciences, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
  • Joaquim Radua
    FIDMAG Germanes Hospitalaries Research Foundation, Barcelona, Spain.
  • Philipp G Sämann
    Max Planck Institute of Psychiatry, Munich, Germany.
  • Paolo Fusar-Poli
    Department of Psychosis Studies, The Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, United Kingdom.
  • Ingrid Agartz
    CoE NORMENT, KG Jebsen Centre for Psychosis Research, Division of Mental Health and Addiction, Oslo University Hospital & Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
  • Ole A Andreassen
    NORMENT, Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo and Division of Mental Health and Addiction, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway. Electronic address: o.a.andreassen@medisin.uio.no.
  • Peter Bachman
    Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Inmaculada Baeza
  • Xiaogang Chen
    1 Institute of Biomedical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin 300192, P. R. China.
  • Sunah Choi
    Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, Seoul National University College of Natural Sciences, Seoul, South Korea.
  • Cheryl M Corcoran
    Department of Psychiatry, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
  • Bjørn H Ebdrup
    Melbourne Neuropsychiatry Centre, Department of Psychiatry, The University of Melbourne and Melbourne Health, Carlton South, Victoria, Australia.
  • Adriana Fortea
    Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and Psychology, Institute of Neuroscience, Hospital Clinic Barcelona, Fundació Clínic Recerca Biomèdica, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
  • Ranjini Rg Garani
    Douglas Research Center; Integrated Program in Neuroscience, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada.
  • Birte Yding Glenthøj
    Centre for Neuropsychiatric Schizophrenia Research (CNSR), Mental Health Centre Glostrup, Copenhagen University Hospital, Glostrup, Denmark.
  • Louise Birkedal Glenthøj
    Copenhagen Research Center for Mental Health, Mental Health Center Copenhagen, University of Copenhagen Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
  • Shalaila S Haas
    Department of Psychiatry, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York.
  • Holly K Hamilton
    Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
  • Rebecca A Hayes
    Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Ying He
    Cancer Research Center Nantong, Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Nantong University, and Medical School of Nantong University, Nantong, China.
  • Karsten Heekeren
    Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, University Hospital of Psychiatry Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
  • Kiyoto Kasai
    Department of Neuropsychiatry, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
  • Naoyuki Katagiri
    Department of Neuropsychiatry, Toho University School of Medicine, Tokyok, Japan.
  • Minah Kim
    Department of Neuropsychiatry, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, South Korea.
  • Tina D Kristensen
    Centre for Neuropsychiatric Schizophrenia Research (CNSR), Mental Health Centre Glostrup, Copenhagen University Hospital, Glostrup, Denmark.
  • Jun Soo Kwon
    Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, Seoul National University College of Natural Sciences, Seoul, South Korea.
  • Stephen M Lawrie
    Division of Psychiatry, School of Clinical Sciences, University of Edinburgh, The Royal Edinburgh Hospital, Morningside Park, UK.
  • Irina Lebedeva
    Mental Health Research Center, Moscow, Russia.
  • Jimmy Lee
    Institute of Mental Health, Singapore, Singapore.
  • Rachel L Loewy
    Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
  • Daniel H Mathalon
    Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States.
  • Philip McGuire
    Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, United Kingdom.
  • Romina Mizrahi
    Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
  • Masafumi Mizuno
    Tokyo Metropolitan Matsuzawa Hospital, Tokyo, Japan.
  • Paul Møller
    Department for Mental Health Research and Development, Division of Mental Health and Addiction, Vestre Viken Hospital Trust, Drammen, Norway.
  • Takahiro Nemoto
    Department of Neuropsychiatry, Toho University School of Medicine, Tokyok, Japan.
  • Dorte Nordholm
    Copenhagen Research Center for Mental Health, Mental Health Center Copenhagen, University of Copenhagen Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
  • Maria A Omelchenko
    Department of Youth Psychiatry, Mental Health Research Center, Moscow, Russian Federation.
  • Jayachandra M Raghava
    Centre for Neuropsychiatric Schizophrenia Research (CNSR), Mental Health Centre Glostrup, Copenhagen University Hospital, Glostrup, Denmark.
  • Jan I Røssberg
    Norwegian Centre for Mental Disorders Research, Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
  • Wulf Rössler
    Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, University Hospital of Psychiatry Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
  • Dean F Salisbury
    Department of Psychiatry, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
  • Daiki Sasabayashi
    Department of Neuropsychiatry, University of Toyama Graduate School of Medicine and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Toyama, Toyama, Japan.
  • Lukasz Smigielski
    Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, Psychiatric University Hospital Zurich, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
  • Gisela Sugranyes
    Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and Psychology, Institute of Neuroscience, 2017SGR-881, Hospital Clinic Barcelona, Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud Mental (CIBERSAM), Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
  • Tsutomu Takahashi
    Department of Neuropsychiatry, University of Toyama Graduate School of Medicine and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Toyama, Toyama, Japan.
  • Christian K Tamnes
    Department of Psychiatric Research, Diakonhjemmet Hospital, Oslo, Norway.
  • Jinsong Tang
    Department of Psychiatry, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Zhejiang, China.
  • Anastasia Theodoridou
    Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, University Hospital of Psychiatry Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
  • Alexander S Tomyshev
    Laboratory of Neuroimaging and Multimodal Analysis, Mental Health Research Center, Moscow, Russian Federation.
  • Peter J Uhlhaas
    Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
  • Tor G Værnes
    Norwegian Centre for Mental Disorders Research, Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
  • Therese A M J van Amelsvoort
    Department of Psychiatry and Neuropsychology, School for Mental Health and Neuroscience, Faculty of Health Medicine and Life Sciences, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands.
  • James A Waltz
    Maryland Psychiatric Research Center, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Lars T Westlye
    CoE NORMENT, KG Jebsen Centre for Psychosis Research, Division of Mental Health and Addiction, Oslo University Hospital & Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
  • Juan H Zhou
    Centre for Sleep and Cognition, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
  • Paul M Thompson
    Imaging Genetics Center, Mark and Mary Stevens Neuroimaging and Informatics Institute, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
  • Dennis Hernaus
    Department of Psychiatry and Neuropsychology, School for Mental Health and Neuroscience, Faculty of Health Medicine and Life Sciences, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands.
  • Maria Jalbrzikowski
    Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Shinsuke Koike
    Graduate School of Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Tokyo, Japan.

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