Anticipating influential factors on suicide outcomes through machine learning techniques: Insights from a suicide registration program in western Iran.

Journal: Asian journal of psychiatry
Published Date:

Abstract

Suicide is a global public health concern, with increasing rates observed in various regions, including Iran. This study focuses on the province of Hamadan, Iran, where suicide rates have been on the rise. The research aims to predict factors influencing suicide outcomes by leveraging machine learning techniques on the Hamadan Suicide Registry Program data collected from 2016 to 2017. The study employs Naïve Bayes and Random Forest algorithms, comparing their performance to logistic regression. Results highlight the superiority of the Random Forest model. Based on the variable importance and multiple logistic regression analyses, the most important determinants of suicide outcomes were identified as suicide method, age, and timing of attempts, income, and motivation. The findings emphasize the cultural context's impact on suicide methods and underscore the importance of tailoring prevention programs to address specific risk factors, especially for older individuals. This study contributes valuable insights for suicide prevention efforts in the region, advocating for context-specific interventions and further research to refine predictive models and develop targeted prevention strategies.

Authors

  • Nasrin Matinnia
    Nursing Department, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Hamedan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Islamic Republic of Iran.
  • Behnaz Alafchi
    Modeling of Noncommunicable Diseases Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Islamic Republic of Iran.
  • Arya Haddadi
    Behavioral Disorders and Substance Abuse Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Islamic Republic of Iran.
  • Ali Ghaleiha
    Behavioral Disorders and Substance Abuse Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Islamic Republic of Iran.
  • Hasan Davari
    Behavioral Disorders and Substance Abuse Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Islamic Republic of Iran.
  • Manochehr Karami
    Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran.
  • Zahra Taslimi
    Behavioral Disorders and Substance Abuse Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Islamic Republic of Iran; Fertility and Infertility Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Islamic Republic of Iran.
  • Mohammad Reza Afkhami
    Behavioral Disorders and Substance Abuse Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Islamic Republic of Iran.
  • Saeid Yazdi-Ravandi
    Behavioral Disorders and Substance Abuse Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Islamic Republic of Iran. Electronic address: Yazdiravandi@umsha.ac.ir.