Machine learning based early warning system enables accurate mortality risk prediction for COVID-19.

Journal: Nature communications
Published Date: Oct 6, 2020

Abstract

Soaring cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) are pummeling the global health system. Overwhelmed health facilities have endeavored to mitigate the pandemic, but mortality of COVID-19 continues to increase. Here, we present a mortality risk prediction model for COVID-19 (MRPMC) that uses patients' clinical data on admission to stratify patients by mortality risk, which enables prediction of physiological deterioration and death up to 20 days in advance. This ensemble model is built using four machine learning methods including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, and Neural Network. We validate MRPMC in an internal validation cohort and two external validation cohorts, where it achieves an AUC of 0.9621 (95% CI: 0.9464-0.9778), 0.9760 (0.9613-0.9906), and 0.9246 (0.8763-0.9729), respectively. This model enables expeditious and accurate mortality risk stratification of patients with COVID-19, and potentially facilitates more responsive health systems that are conducive to high risk COVID-19 patients.

Authors

  • Yue Gao
    Institute of Medical Technology, Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing, China.
  • Guang-Yao Cai
    National Medical Center for Major Public Health Events, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430000, China.
  • Wei Fang
    GNSS Research Center, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430079, China.
  • Hua-Yi Li
    National Medical Center for Major Public Health Events, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430000, China.
  • Si-Yuan Wang
    National Medical Center for Major Public Health Events, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430000, China.
  • Lingxi Chen
    Department of Computer Science, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 99907, China.
  • Yang Yu
    Division of Cardiology, the Central Hospital of Wuhan, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
  • Dan Liu
    Department of Bioengineering, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, United States.
  • Sen Xu
    National Medical Center for Major Public Health Events, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430000, China.
  • Peng-Fei Cui
    National Medical Center for Major Public Health Events, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430000, China.
  • Shao-Qing Zeng
    National Medical Center for Major Public Health Events, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430000, China.
  • Xin-Xia Feng
    Department of Gastroenterology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430000, China.
  • Rui-Di Yu
    National Medical Center for Major Public Health Events, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430000, China.
  • Ya Wang
    Key Laboratory of Industrial Ecology and Environmental Engineering (MOE), School of Environmental Science and Technology, Dalian University of Technology, Linggong Road 2, Dalian 116024, China.
  • Yuan Yuan
    Department of Geriatrics, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
  • Xiao-Fei Jiao
    National Medical Center for Major Public Health Events, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430000, China.
  • Jian-Hua Chi
    National Medical Center for Major Public Health Events, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430000, China.
  • Jia-Hao Liu
    National Medical Center for Major Public Health Events, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430000, China.
  • Ru-Yuan Li
    National Medical Center for Major Public Health Events, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430000, China.
  • Xu Zheng
    Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Shanghai Sixth People's Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
  • Chun-Yan Song
    National Medical Center for Major Public Health Events, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430000, China.
  • Ning Jin
    National Medical Center for Major Public Health Events, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430000, China.
  • Wen-Jian Gong
    National Medical Center for Major Public Health Events, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430000, China.
  • Xing-Yu Liu
    National Medical Center for Major Public Health Events, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430000, China.
  • Lei Huang
    School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China.
  • Xun Tian
    Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Academician Expert Workstation, The Central Hospital of Wuhan, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
  • Lin Li
    Department of Medicine III, LMU University Hospital, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany.
  • Hui Xing
    Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Xiangyang Central Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Hubei University of Arts and Science, Xiangyang, Hubei 441021, China.
  • Ding Ma
    Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei 430030, China.
  • Chun-Rui Li
    Department of Hematology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430000, China.
  • Fei Ye
    School of information science and technology, Southwest Jiaotong University, ChengDu, China.
  • Qing-Lei Gao
    National Medical Center for Major Public Health Events, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430000, China. qingleigao@hotmail.com.

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