New approach of prediction of recurrence in thyroid cancer patients using machine learning.

Journal: Medicine
Published Date:

Abstract

Although papillary thyroid cancers are known to have a relatively low risk of recurrence, several factors are associated with a higher risk of recurrence, such as extrathyroidal extension, nodal metastasis, and BRAF gene mutation. However, predicting disease recurrence and prognosis in patients undergoing thyroidectomy is clinically difficult. To detect new algorithms that predict recurrence, inductive logic programming was used in this study.A total of 785 thyroid cancer patients who underwent bilateral total thyroidectomy and were treated with radioiodine were selected for our study. Of those, 624 (79.5%) cases were used to create algorithms that would detect recurrence. Furthermore, 161 (20.5%) cases were analyzed to validate the created rules. DELMIA Process Rules Discovery was used to conduct the analysis.Of the 624 cases, 43 (6.9%) cases experienced recurrence. Three rules that could predict recurrence were identified, with postoperative thyroglobulin level being the most powerful variable that correlated with recurrence. The rules identified in our study, when applied to the 161 cases for validation, were able to predict 71.4% (10 of 14) of the recurrences.Our study highlights that inductive logic programming could have a useful application in predicting recurrence among thyroid patients.

Authors

  • Soo Young Kim
    Department of Surgery, Institute of Refractory Thyroid Cancer, Gangnam Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
  • Young-Il Kim
    GN Systems Inc., Seoul, Korea.
  • Hee Jun Kim
    Department of Surgery, Institute of Refractory Thyroid Cancer, Gangnam Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
  • Hojin Chang
    Department of Surgery, Thyroid Cancer Center, Gangnam Severance Hospital, Institute of Refractory Thyroid Cancer, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
  • Seok-Mo Kim
    Department of Surgery, Thyroid Cancer Center, Gangnam Severance Hospital, Institute of Refractory Thyroid Cancer, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
  • Yong Sang Lee
    Department of Surgery, Institute of Refractory Thyroid Cancer, Gangnam Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
  • Soon-Sun Kwon
    Department of Mathematics/AI & Data Science, Ajou University, Suwon, Korea.
  • Hyunjung Shin
    Department of Industrial Engineering, Ajou University, Wonchun-dong, Yeongtong-gu, Suwon, 443-749, South Korea. shin@ajou.ac.kr.
  • Hang-Seok Chang
    Department of Surgery, Institute of Refractory Thyroid Cancer, Gangnam Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
  • Cheong Soo Park
    Department of Surgery, Institute of Refractory Thyroid Cancer, Gangnam Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.